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The math that no one does before launching a perfume

And that they often determine failure more than the perfume itself

When a new perfumery project takes shape, the focus is almost always on the same elements:
the fragrance, the name, the packaging, the image.

They are the visible parts.
The ones that excite.
The ones that are easy to fall in love with.

But in most projects that do not work, the problem has never been the scent.
It was what has not been calculated before.

Let's not talk about gross errors.
We talk about accounts that simply are not made, because they are inconvenient, unglamorous or put off “until later.”.

Yet it is these invisible accounts that determine whether a perfume can become a sustainable brand or remain a creative exercise.

The first ignored account: the price the market really accepts

Many projects start from the wrong question: “How much would I like to sell this perfume for?”

The correct question is a different one: “At what price is this perfume credible for the market I am targeting?”

The difference is subtle, but fundamental.

Price is not a number that comes at the end. It is a design constraint that should guide everything:

  • type of packaging

  • weight of materials

  • sales channel

  • logistics costs

  • real marginality

When the price is decided after the fact, the project is already fragile.

The second account: the total cost, not the unit cost

One of the most common mistakes is to look only at the cost per piece.

But a perfume is never alone:

  • the cost of fragrance

  • the cost of the bottle

  • the cost of the box

There is a total system cost, which includes:

  • scraps

  • returns

  • rework

  • order minimums

  • stockholding

  • downtime

  • forecast errors

Many brands discover too late that a product that is “cheap” to produce is actually expensive to sustain over time.

The third account: marginality that is really needed

A project does not die because it does not sell. It dies because sells without margin.

Marginality is not just for “making money.” It serves to:

  • absorb errors

  • support rearrangements

  • finance future development

  • handle unforeseen events

When marginality is compressed to “enter the market,” the project becomes rigid. And a rigid project, over time, does not hold up.

The fourth account: the channel decides more than the product

A perfume does not have the same income statement when sold:

  • online

  • in boutique

  • in selective perfumery

  • through social commerce

Each channel has:

  • miscellaneous costs

  • different expectations

  • different dynamics

Designing a product without having clarified Where it will actually be sold means designing blindly.

The canal is not a consequence. It is a structural decision.

The fifth account: time is not neutral

Time has a cost. Always.

Each additional month before launch means:

  • firm capital

  • fixed costs

  • loss of momentum

  • decision-making pressure

But the opposite is also true: throwing too fast generates mistakes that cost much more later.

Time should not be sped up or slowed down at random. It should be designed.

The most underestimated account: what happens after the first batch

Many projects work on the first launch. And they crash soon after.

Why no one asked:

  • what happens to the rearrangement?

  • does the cost really go down?

  • is the production replicable?

  • does the supply chain hold up?

A perfume is not an event. It is a system. If the system has not been thought out from the beginning, initial success becomes a problem, not an advantage.

Why these accounts are avoided

The truth is simple: these accounts take away magic.

They force people to make choices. To give up. To downsize or rethink.

But the magic of a project is not in ignoring the numbers. It lies in the make them first, when course correction is still possible.

Conclusion

Making a good perfume today is not difficult. Building a design that can last is.

The brands that work are not the ones that have avoided accounts. They are the ones that have dealt with them Before falling in love with the result.

Because in the contemporary market, creativity without structure is not freedom. It is uncalculated risk.

Editorial Note - Insight Journal

This article is not a call for caution. It is an invitation to awareness.

Because the real luxury today is not launching a perfume. It is to build a project that can afford to do it again tomorrow.